IRR (Rate of Return) for Profit, and other crop research.

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by xFishbone, Mar 14, 2016.

  1. Axelius

    Axelius Tentacle Wrangler

    You had to say that, didn't you? You do know that you have now compelled me to go look at the code that handles hitting rocks with pickaxe and decides what it pops out? You bastard...
     
    • xFishbone

      xFishbone Cosmic Narwhal

      .....nono dont do it!
      ...cos then i'll have to add a section to the sheet for it or i wont be able to sleep o.o
       
        Last edited: Mar 16, 2016
      • DukeOfRiven

        DukeOfRiven Giant Laser Beams

        Why Axelius, you flirt.

        ...

        Yes.
         
        • Morgath

          Morgath Astral Cartographer

          Really nice improvements to the spreadsheet xFishbone. Thanks for putting in the values for the different types of fertilizers.

          Had guessed that it deluxe speed grow would make some crops less productive due to the added cost, and some would really improve, but don't have the math skills to work it out.
          Might not use it much myself atm unless I were to try a really min-max play-style, but going to be useful for those that do. (it actually improves blueberry a lot more than cranberry, and it makes starfruit better then hops, which was a surprise for me)

          It's defiantly useful to know to make the most of your cash at the start of the season. Really hate trying to work out which fertilizers to use on which crops if I have spare cash to buy some, so this takes the guess work out if it. (a touch of the miser in me sometimes lol)
           
          • xFishbone

            xFishbone Cosmic Narwhal

            ya... i was quite surprised at the results myself... lol

            thank Axelius for the fertilizer data :)
             
            • xnoirel

              xnoirel Big Damn Hero

              Hey, nice chart! The IRR is really a nice thing to know. However I don't get how you derive the percentage under the IRR. What does those percentage represent and how did you arrive to that?
               
              • xFishbone

                xFishbone Cosmic Narwhal

                IRR(internal rate of return) is actually a function in most spreadsheets so i didnt actually have to arrive at it =x

                but if you're interested in what it actually is.. then...
                its basically how many% your money will grow every day.


                200% will mean your money will effectively double each day.
                a crop that grows for 3 days and gives you 8x when sold will show 200%

                your farm will grow the same rate as if you used crops that sold for 2x and grow in 1 day.
                plant today, 2x tomorrow, then sell that and 4x the day after, and harvest for 8x the 3rd day.



                the actual formula, after a bit of simplification, is something along the lines of [profit]^(1/[days])
                "^" means to the power of.
                something to the power of 1/2 is the same as sqroot
                something to the power of 1/3 is cube root etc


                hope its understandable! it can get pretty mathy.
                 
                  Last edited: Mar 17, 2016
                • xnoirel

                  xnoirel Big Damn Hero

                  So, according to the chart, the potato has an IRR rate of 11.23%, does that mean that your money.... ugh my head can't process... LOL it didn't sound right no matter how I put it.
                   
                  • xFishbone

                    xFishbone Cosmic Narwhal

                    it means ur money will grow at the same rate as if you plant crops that sell for 11.23% profit with a growth time of 1 day.
                    assuming u reinvest all your money back into getting more crops.


                    also the numbers do change. depending on things like farming level and what fertilizer u use.
                    thats what all those fiddly settings on the side of the sheet change.
                     
                    • SmaugBaggins

                      SmaugBaggins Existential Complex

                      xfishbone i love your way of thinking i tend to think the same way but never really bothered to do the math <3 it Keep up the gr8 work
                       
                      • Axelius

                        Axelius Tentacle Wrangler

                        Now we just need to add in the potential for Giant Crops...
                         
                        • xFishbone

                          xFishbone Cosmic Narwhal

                          TY ^^


                          ever wonder what the chances really are? *nudge nudge*
                           
                          • Axelius

                            Axelius Tentacle Wrangler

                            Haven't looked at it closely, but IIRC that it is based on every 3x3 square that exist in your field. So a 3x3 has one chance, 3x4 has two, 4x4 have four chances, etc.
                             
                            • xFishbone

                              xFishbone Cosmic Narwhal

                              so basically the first 2 rows and columns have 0 chance then each other crop has exactly 1 chance.
                              maybe we can assume its an infinite field and just use the chance per crop and maybe just make a note about not counting the first 2 columns/rows
                               
                                Last edited: Mar 17, 2016
                              • Axelius

                                Axelius Tentacle Wrangler

                                Looked at the code, seems the chance is 1%.

                                Well, not quite, I mean, if we have 3x4 we can only ever get one giant crop, but we have twice the chance of getting it. But if we have a 3x6 we have 4 chances of getting one and in one of those cases we have one additional chance of getting a second one.

                                I think it would be easier to let the spreadsheet do the calculations based on an input of field dimensions (assuming the field is a filled rectangle (so no sprinklers inside).

                                One non-square shape that might be worth calculating is an Iridium Sprinkler + shape. That is the two intersecting 4x8s between four iridium sprinklers.
                                 
                                • Axelius

                                  Axelius Tentacle Wrangler

                                  Granted, the chance of a 3x4 spawning two would be 1/10000
                                   
                                  • Indigo Rose

                                    Indigo Rose Scruffy Nerf-Herder

                                    So, how many 'chances' do you get in a 4x4 square?
                                     
                                    • xFishbone

                                      xFishbone Cosmic Narwhal

                                      each crop has a (0.01-0.0008) chance of being giant..?
                                      ish?
                                      if we go left to right, top to bottom, and roll the chances for the bottom right most crop of a giant crop, then it cant become a giant if any of the other 8 are.. but none of the other 8 can become giant if another one in that 8 is a giant too... but then those 8 also have 0.01-0.0008 chance so its not exactly.... brain.. hurt...


                                      4.
                                      just minus 2 from rows and 2 from columns.
                                      but then if one of them becomes giant then the rest cant become giant either.. so its actually slightly less than 4...
                                       
                                      • Axelius

                                        Axelius Tentacle Wrangler

                                        4.

                                        It becomes easy to count if we visualise by drawing it out on a grid. For the following I'll use x for tiles that can not be the center of a giant crop and o for tiles that can.

                                        Code:
                                        xxxx 0 possibilities
                                        xoox 2
                                        xoox 2
                                        xxxx 0
                                        
                                        By comparison here is what I drew for the sprinkler +. I use . to denote a tile that cannot be part of a giant crop and the + to represent sprinkler.

                                        Code:
                                        
                                        ...xxxx...
                                        ...xoox...2
                                        ..+xoox+..2
                                        xxxxooxxxx2
                                        xoooooooox8
                                        xoooooooox8
                                        xxxxooxxxx2
                                        ..+xoox+..2
                                        ...xoox...2
                                        ...xxxx...
                                        
                                        
                                         
                                        • xFishbone

                                          xFishbone Cosmic Narwhal

                                          a sheet for what can become giant isnt too hard.. but the exact chance is going to kill my brain.
                                          ..lets just assume its 1% lol

                                          whats the benefit?
                                          i know you loose some of the fertilizer under it =/
                                           

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